Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.