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Well. From one perspective, Australia's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to many people who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the Australian and international media saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although the minister supported it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and at times outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is quietly done to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has participated in.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference except for making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.